Friday, February 07, 2020

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Coronavirus Analysis, Tikkunim, and status in Israel

by Reb Akiva at Mystical Paths

PLENTY of info is available about the scary "Novel Coronavirus nCoV-2019" virus spreading around the world - but we've quickly reached INFO OVERLOAD, CONSPIRACY THEORIES, and just general ignorance about medical and governmental stuff.

So here's a brief update that I've sent around to family and friends - as of Friday, February 7, 2020:

- Here's a link to official statistics, stating 31,000 known cases, 26,000 suspected cases (awaiting test results).  These numbers are scary, but the government reactions are soooo much stronger than the numbers that there is a reasonable suspicion that we are not well informed about something - hence the conspiracies.
- A compelling case is made that China cases are 10x reported, and world cases are 4x reported/detected is being made by biostatistitions:  (source - LINK video)  This makes sense as well because people may have a mild case, being infectious, but never arrive at a hospital for testing because it never becomes severe - for them.  As well, people in China may be dying without ever having been tested so not officially counted.  So the official statistics can be looked at as the severe cases that were hospitalised statistics.

- Quarantined Japanese cruise ship detected cases increases from 20 to 61 overnight (probably as test kits were processed) out of 273 people tested of the 3,700 people onboard.  (source: mainstream news). This gives a hint that the infectious rate is pretty high, at 22%.  But all those people did not end up in the hospital with severe pneumonia.  This is a pretty good sample quantity to see infection rates, and severity rates of those infected - so watch the numbers from this Japanese cruise ship.

- Multi-national corporations have increased their business travel bans from China to now include all south-east Asia countries as of yesterday. (source: friend with frequent business travel who works for a multi-national)

- This also aligns with the Health Minister of Thailand going on video cursing about making people take proper protective measures - particular concern that tourists were not and recommended immediately deporting any tourist not masked -- there is real fear of uncontrolled spread throughout southeast Asian countries.

- Reports that several states in India have restricted imports of foodstuffs and other items from China and other south-eastern Asian countries.  (source: twitter @ians_india)
 Not sure this makes sense  (virus highly unlikely to survive transit times) but it is the kind of move governments tend to make - the appearance of doing something.  (There was a similar rumour in Israel that they were stopping Chinese imports, NOT TRUE.)

- So what are the actual symptoms in a serious case?  Good case study at this video link: 

-- 10 days of fever
-- 15 days of cough

-- 2 days of runny nose

-- 13 days of fatigue

-- 4 days of nausea
-- 2 days of vomiting

-- 2 days of diarrhea
-- 1 day abdominal discomfort

- Israel - potential coronavirus case 60 yr old woman from Bnei Brak tested false, no coronavirus.

- Israel - potential coronavirus case 9 yr old girl returning from Vietnam (lives in China, visited Vietnam then flew to Israel) was quarantined at Schneider’s Childrens Hospital - tested false, no coronavirus.

(Information in Israel on major events spreads very quickly, with many volunteers on communication networks everyone knows every ambulance or security response within an hour - so information is reasonably available if not always 100% accurate.)

No cases reported in Israel to date.

- Israel - all direct flights to/from China were cancelled as of Feb 1, and all organised tours from China to Israel (by any flight - groups frequently flew via Russian airlines) were cancelled as of Mon Feb 3.  Expect impact to the tourism industry, Chinese tourists make up 3.5% of Israel tourism.

- Israel - China also provides Israel with construction teams, including teams working on the Tel Aviv light rail.  Potential impact to Israeli economy grows over time (like everywhere in the world).

- Jewish world - Mekubalim and Tzaddikim perform Tikkun Shovavim including prayers for reversing the decree of Coronavirus.  Info here.

- USA - Military puts aside 6th base as a national quarantine site.  Yet as of today there are only 10 cases in the US, and 2 plane loads of Americans evacuated from China on 1 base.

- World infection growth trends have not slowed - that's the big concern.

- May Hashem bless everyone to stay healthy and Shabbat Shalom.


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