Tuesday, December 10, 2019

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Bye Bye Babies - The West goes Extinct

by Reb Akiva at Mystical Paths

-- "in no (Western) country have pro-birth policies sustained fertility above the replacement rate."

-- "The U.S. total fertility rate (TFR) has dropped to below 1.73 births per woman", now far below the 2.2 replacement rate (the rate at which the population stays the same).

-- "U.S. fertility rates appear to be following the downward below-replacement trend seen in other developed countries. For example, the overall rate for the 28 countries in the European Union is just under 1.6 births per woman; Japan's is at 1.4 births; Australia's is at 1.74 births, and Canada's is 1.5 births."

-- "modern people considering their options are voluntarily choosing to have fewer children."

-- An early example, Japan: "When a country's birth rate shrinks, it can face major challenges. When a country's population gets older, that causes problems too. But what if both happen at the same time? Japan knows, because it's facing this exact crisis right now. This may seem like a "Japan problem," but it will be affecting most developed nations in the next 30–50 years, including the United States. Japan's population is declining, but that doesn't mean the death rate is increasing. In fact, Japanese people are living longer, healthier lives than ever before. This is a good thing under normal circumstances, but pair it with a declining birth rate, and problems begin to emerge."

-- Japan is suffering abandoned towns, abandoned homes and apartments throughout the country, loss of labor pool, deflation due to change in spending habits as population ages and shrinks, empty schools, and a swing in politics as the elderly voters - an increasing segment of the population - demand that social spending focus on their needs.

With Western economies and living conditions being THE BEST IN HISTORY, the traditional reason for reducing family size of concern over support doesn't apply.

I put it down to 2 reasons:

1. Doomers.  The doomer generation is convinced by mass hysteria that world conditions are horrible and we're all going to die in 6 months or 5 years or 12 years (depending on the preacher of the moment).  Who would bring children into a world about to end due to climate disaster?  Particularly since Manhattan went underwater.

2. Lack of the Patriarchy.  By ending the patriarchy, women and society have made it near impossible for men to support their families through their wife's child bearing years.  And by continually penalizing men for...being men, they have dis-incentivized men from wanting to commit to doing so. While every woman can now achieve her best and take every professional position, what she can't achieve is motherhood with a spouse who can fund her doing so.

The exception to this Western civilization trend is Israel.  Israel is a little harder to understand, as there are (at least) 3 different distinct population segments with different birth rates - but net net Israel's birth rate is somewhere from 2.7 - 3.1.  (The segments are secular Israeli Jews, religious Israeli Jews, and Israeli Arabs.)  Here's a surprisingly good article on some of the reasons why.

While the West is at is zenith, and is going crazy indulging in every fantasy excess (when a society has time and money to focus on a micro-sub-population issue such as T - it's living in a no-threat no-real-concern time), it's actually sowing the seeds of it's disappearance by ignoring the balances necessary for normal survival.

The next 25 years should be really interesting.  It would be best, of course, if Moshiach arrives and returns optimism to the world.

Reference: Reason, Tofugu

1 comment:

  1. It is very peculiar here that the even the non-religious left are caught up in the baby culture whereas in the west, ROW, the pursuit of happiness is more important and children are seen as a burden and even a hassle.
    It is indeed refreshing these days when an article is reporting objectively about the phenomenon without 'journalisming'/editorializing.

    ReplyDelete

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