Thursday, June 10, 2010

// // 14 comments

Geulah or War Rumblings

Iranian-Navy-ships Debka, and now other sources, note Iran stating they’re sending additional blockade running ships together with military ships to confront Israel.  I’ve been asked what I think.

First note that Debka always shouts the most worrisome headline points, picking the smallest statements of any foreign personnel to create the biggest loudest worry. They are headline grabbers, and I don’t (yet) see any mainstream outlets reporting similar (not even Al Jazeera).

That said, the scenario isn't ridiculous. The question is how impotent the other world powers will be. Most of the world powers want STABILITY. War is generally bad for business, and Middle Eastern war can have major economic impact if it disrupts oil shipments.  Even Russia, who wants to gain increasing influence, doesn't really want war (but doesn't mind tension to gain influence and sell war equipment).  So I would think they would use their influence to stop things getting to this point.  Nor do I think having Iran start a war on their border is in Egypt's interest.

On the spiritual side of things, the mekubalim have said a war scenario was put off "until the 3 weeks" of this year.  There's also a calculation debate whether it's brought down from the Gra in Kol HaTor whether the last possible date for geulah before it's time (rather than in it's time) falls on July 12 - the first of Av (at ~12:40pm) of this year or the 25th of Tammuz (at the end of Mincha gedola) next year (Rabbi Nati says it may be this year, Dov bar Leib calculates it to be next year).

It’s important to note the Lubavitcher Rebbe's view that such times don't have to develop into a negative physical scenario, and only our teshuva and (lack of sufficient) desire for the geulah is holding it back. Certainly we've seen amazing world events in the last 30 years such as the falling of the Berlin wall and crumbling of the Soviet Union, where tremendous world changes occurred in a bloodless fashion.

Of course we don’t know what tomorrow will bring. But the Rebbe stressed that in any scenario Israel remains the place of Hashem’s attention and protection, even in apparently worrisome times it’s never appropriate to run from Israel, and it’s the safest place in the world to be a Jew.

If we are coming to the biblical prophecies of Gog u’Magog, the question may be not whether it’s safe to be in Israel but if it’s safe to not be in Israel.

May the Geulah come b’rachamim mamash today.

14 comments:

yaak said...

I'm interested in understanding R' Dov Bar Leib's reasoning for why he thinks it's next year.
Is it because he believes the world was created in year 2?
The only issue then is that 5708 doesn't work out. It should really have been 5709.

Devorah said...

Does Dov bar Leib still blog? The old one hasn't been updated since 2008....

Anonymous said...

He's on facebook. I chat with him every now and then.
I think he said it was because we started in year 1 not 0, so the hour finishes at the end or something similar.

Shiloh said...

The Gra states it's in 2012 for the geulah. At any rate it's going to be tough from this moment on.

ash said...

Shiloh, or anyone, where is the source where it said that the Gra predicted the geulah to be in 2012?

josh said...

Many of my friends are quick to put down Debka, but I think that most people fail to understand the context of their service.

They are in the intelligence business and have sources in this 'industry'. Their site pretty much mimics the way these services work by trying to collect little bits of information and putting the puzzle together they think is really happening on the other side. I am quite confident that the little bits of pieces that are recieved and analysed and then blown out of proportion for us are very similar to the little bits and pieces that we were picking up from mekubalim and then over analysing and calculating dates which peaked I think 2005 - 2008. Fortunately or not, the few good sources we had providing inside mekubal info have virtually stopped. Fortunately or not, Debka is still around.

We also know to take the mekubalim with a grain of salt since they aer not prophets. Their analysis, or rather knowledge, is right on for the specific time when they publicize it. But circumstances can and do change.

Neshama said...

Great blog, however I take exception with one sentence: "May the Geulah come b’rachamim mamash today"

While I want it to happen immediately and b'Rachamim, I would PREFER that it begin after the Nefesh flights this summer bring more Jews home, and especially after July 6 as that is the flight my husband and I are supposed to be on (if i ever can find an apt. We're looking in Bayit Vegan and Shaarei Chessed)!

BTW this episode of the WH Press Corps antiquated hasbeen is what some term a "BELL RINGER" for the Jews in America. It only takes one person to start an avalanche!

Shiloh said...

Neshama, don't advertise dates or talk too much about it.

Akiva said...

The Kohein Gadol used to daven on Yom Kippur that Hashem should ignore the prayers of travelers and bring rain in it's proper time.

Shiloh said...

Akiva, why to ignore prayers of travelers? Shavua tov.

Dov Bar-Leib said...

I spoke to Akiva about this through gmail messenger. It is based on the fact that high noon was the end of 5750 not the beginning of 5750. In short it was 5751. 3/4 of 1000 is 750, but if the year one began at the beginning of the year One not the year Zero, 3/4 of 1000 is 751. Each hour of the Gra's 1000year day is 41.667 years. Therefore Mincha gedolah is 20.83333 years. 5751 + 20.83333 years should be Rosh Chodesh Av 5751. Yet, 5751 has an Adar Sheni. .83333 of a 13 month year takes us to the 25th of Tamuz 5751.

Dov Bar-Leib said...

sorry 5771.

Dov Bar-Leib said...

5751 + 20.83333 years should be Rosh Chodesh Av 5771. Yet, 5771 has an Adar Sheni. .83333 of a 13 month year takes us to the 25th of Tamuz 5771.

Anonymous said...

The Rebbe and other tzaddikim have repeated that the war of Gog and Magog has already happened. The final war of Gog and Magog is a spiritual war against the Yetzer Hara. This was also mentioned by Rav Nachman of Breslev. So the final redemption will take place without any major world war.

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