Wednesday, September 17, 2008

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The Biggest Story of the Past 50 Years

by Reb Akiva at Mystical Paths

Headline: "The Biggest Financial Story of the Past 50 Years"

(Fool.com) Bigger than the dot-com bust? Yep. Bigger than Black Monday in 1987? Yep. Bigger than the oil shock of the 1970s? Mmmhmm.

This is the biggest financial shock to the U.S. and the World Financial System since the Great Depression. BUT, there's a conflict with the navi (biblical prophets) here. The US has some roles to play, namely a battle with Iran, before it's job is done. And a financially collapsed US can't do that.

Here's my prediction: As the financial system teeters, those holding massive amounts of US dollars - China and the Arab Oil Emirates - rush in to prop up the system. Why? Because they have almost as much to loose. 20 years of trade inbalance, 20 years of dollars piling up, are at risk. The reason the news reports keep turning to Abu Daibi and Dubai is because they have both the means and the interest in stopping a failure from happening.

But it doesn't fix the problem. The broken loan structures, investment bundles, insurances, all have to unwind. They will prop it up, but it will be very unstable.

Then those looking for US weakness will try to take advantage. An oil shock, a major insurgency, terrorism unleashed, something to hurt, drain, break the system.

The US will be forced to respond, strongly, quickly, harshly. It can no longer afford to act so nice, it's very national stability will be on the line.

The times of the words of the navi'im will be here.

The tzaddikim are praying that it be gentle, it be diplomatic, or even better it be a spiritual battle. That Gog u'Magog has been divided into 3 parts, and we only have part 3 left to experience. And that it be unpleasant, not deadly, faith shaking, not life threatening.

May their prayers be successful, and we must add ours to theirs, and may we all merit to see the coming of Moshiach tzidkaynu, mamash, today.

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8 comments:

Gary said...

I'm not so sure that this event is bigger than 1987. In 1987, the market lost around 22% of its value. Yesterday, the market lost about 4.5% of its value. I would argue that these failures are part of the destructive creativity that characterizes a true free-market economy.

Perhaps I'll be shown wrong, but I think that the remaining firms have limited their exposure to the credit crisis, and although they'll have some lean years, they will get through it.

The big news is that the U.S. Govt. stopped bailing out Wall St. Now that there is no expectation of a government bailout, companies will readjust their expectations accordingly and an equilibrium will eventually set in.

nava said...

In my humble opinion, I see different than you...
America will financially collapse, including its businesses, corporations, and the people.

The government though will NOT collapse, YET! Iran will feast on the collapse of the USA financial institutions and as the neviim prophesized, will war against the USA...

aghast at irresponsible chutzpa said...

"Here's my prediction"

HAVE YOU NO SHAME?!!!

Shiloh said...

Why should they prop up the US? The Chinese have already dumped, if not mistaken around 300 million US dollars already. They could care less about the US. The only way there would be an oil shock is if Iran was spanked. There is a glut of oil in the market already. The great scam has worked to force the US into turning against Israel. Now we wait for the hit on Iran, why, to blame us, so they all gather together to come against us. ========================
Nava, the US and the Iranian version of the CIA are, and have always been working together. They have done just recently military excersises together. Cheney recently attempted to get Israel to start the war with Iran, why, to blame us with the current political situation. I think we are being set up for the final go around with the goyim.

Akiva said...

gary - first, this is not a stock market leverage bubble but a mortgage leverage bubble, and the numbers are where the bubble is. Regardless, the market HAS dropped over 35%, it's just happened over a year instead of 1 day.

shiloh - why??? because they have an incredibly huge pile of dollars that they don't want to see loose more value. China has $1700 BILLION (or $1.7 TRILLION) in reserves, Abi Dhabi has $1300 BILLION (or $1.3 TRILLION), Dubai has $200 BILLION. The $300 million you mention would literally be a itty bitty tiny test exchange to see what happens. If they even try to exchange a serious portion of their money they would cause a massive devaluation in the remainder. Their wealth IS that pile - they are motivated to make sure it maintains it's value.

aghast - why do you feel ignoring it is better? should a person not take defensive moves in highly uncertain times?

nava - we disagree on the understanding of the nevua of yoma, but not on the next step.

jos boersema said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Anonymous said...

Vincent wrote:
In the game of chess when a checkmate is inevitable there might very well still be various ways of actually getting to that point, nevertheless or either way the writing would be on the wall, just no way of escaping. In my humble opion the opions expressed over here concerning U.S economy and Iran make a lot of sense.
We don't really know the future and yet we do.
By the way: I read somewhere that Lehman's debt was $ 613 billion

Anonymous said...

Vincent still writing: Hopefully when Mosiach comes I get rid of the 'spell mistake biduk' aswell;

breaking opinion: Is this a sign or not? I do not know.

http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/djf500/200809150751DOWJONESDJONLINE000296_FORTUNE5.htm

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