Friday, January 19, 2007

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Balance of Blood?

by Akiva at Mystical Paths

"Simon" commented on Who's Who and What's What...

A lot of folks at LGF (myself included) think the purpose of the money is to make sure Hamas and Fatah are fairly evenly matched so the Pali civil war keeps escalating. I think that is Israeli policy as well. Olmert's restraint re: Gaza rockets being a case in point. Minimal retaliation means the factions will not unite against Israel. Haniyeh says US and Israel are conspiring to keep the civil war going (he actually says get it started - but he has to say that to preserve the fictiion of unity). He should know.

I don't think it is manipulation. I think it is union on policy. Diplo speak is being used to cover what is really happening.

I do think America wants Olmert out for his betrayal of America last summer in Lebanon. Treachery. This is good. The Israeli people have been given six months to act. Now America is makining its move. Iran won't wait.

It is quite possible that America has decided that with no new elections in sight Lieberman will be favored as Israel's next Prime Minister. America has access to the world wide banking network and may have dropped a dime on Olmert.

Every good strategy has alternate goals. So the enemy can't tell what you are trying to accomplish and splits his forces. In this case the "enemy" is the world community. The people who scream bloody murder every time some action is taken against the Palestinians. In this case, to the casual observer, it looks like America is helping the Palestinians by giving them money. Israel has promised to give them some of the back taxes owed. However, it is my guess that the money will be given to factions so as to keep them aproximately matched. A balance of power strategy.

For the longest time I couldn't figure out why the arms smuggling tunnels into Gaza were not severely attacked. Now I see it as part of the plan. You will note that in co-operation with Egypt that arms flow freely (if you have the money to pay) but no cash is allowed in. The purpose is to allow a small arms build up while by controlling the money flows, thus controlling who gets the arms. In addition Hamas must be allowed to get some arms through so they have no incentive to close the tunnels.

Why would Egypt co-operate? Probably they have been threatened with the dumping of the Palestinian problem in their laps if they do not go along. This is something they absolutely do not want. If Gaza became part of Egypt again Egypt would, for political reasons, have to open its borders to the Gazans.

My guess? Sharon had something like this in mind when he decided giving the Palestinians Gaza was a good idea. The best stratgy in war is to win without fighting. In this case you get the Plaestinians to fight among each other.

Usually people trying to outsmart themselves and the world end up with serious unintended consequences. That seems to be a normal American thing as well.

Though, as the CEO of Coke once said when they had the New Coke fiasco, "we're not that smart, and we're not that stupid".


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